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counterfactual

counterfactual

1 8.8
A statement about what could have happened if things were different
  • noun
  • /ˌkaʊntərˈfæktʃuəl/
translation icon : contrafactual
  • She posed an interesting counterfactual: how different would modern technology be if the internet had been invented earlier?

And and further, you can't rerun the counterfactuals, so you don't really know.

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Examples

  • To indulge in the counterfactual: I think that we would be better off today had they succeeded.

    Academic text (2017)
  • Historians often debate the counterfactual: what would have happened if the American Civil War had never occurred?

  • And you know, the the counterfactual with no Black Death is very, very, very hard to play.

  • Britannica: Another counterfactual: What would the world today look like without computers?

    Blog text (23)
  • Here's what you want to think about as a counterfactual.

    Blog text (7)
  • The difference between the baseline and each counterfactual can be interpreted as the excess costs associated with each condition.

    Academic text (2011)
  • Much of the complexity of impact assessment is associated with obtaining a valid estimate of the latter status, known as the counterfactual because it describes a condition contrary to what actually happened to program recipients.

    Academic text (2011)
  • Consequently, the estimates for Research Question 3 contain no comparison time series, and the estimated counterfactual is the continuation of the pre-NCLB trend in the public schools.

    Academic text (2014)
  • The evaluation compared SIF grantees with applicants that had submitted satisfactory SIF applications but did not receive a SIF grant, providing an important counterfactual for the SIF grantee experience.

    Academic text (2017)
  • In a class about history, we explored a counterfactual scenario where the Roman Empire never fell.

Surface Forms

Morphology

counterfactual = counterfactual (semi-transparent) = counter + fact + ual

The noun is a straightforward conversion from the adjective, and the internal structure 'counter-' + 'fact' + '-ual' is fairly clear, though the specialized logical meaning is not fully predictable.

Etymology

Counterfactual comes from counter- 'against' and fact 'a true thing'. A counterfactual as a noun is a 'what if' statement that imagines what might have happened instead of what actually happened.